Weekly Outlook, Sep 16-20: FOMC & Fed Rate Decision Set to Fire the Stage



Good morning, fellas.
The previous week, the European Central Bank shook the market dramatically via dovish policy decisions. As you know, the Eurozone economy was facing a dramatic slowdown lately. The Eurozone’s GDP hardly rose in the second quarter of 2019. Eurozone economic growth slumped to 0.2% in the second quarter of 2019, versus 0.4% in the first quarter of the year, while some economies, including Italy and Germany, are trifling with the recession.
Last week on Thursday, the European Central Bank cut rates deeper into negative zone and relaunched new asset purchases program with no scheduled end-date.

How ECB Impacts the US Dollar & FOMC?

Although, the ECB decision doesn’t have a direct link with the US dollar, the rate cut decision and dovish monetary policy influence the Federal Reserve’s decision making. Jerome Powell and team are now under pressure to play the monetary policy decisions, keeping the interest rates lower.
Therefore, the market is trading the US dollar with a dovish policy sentiment. Last week, the greenback plunged from an over one-week high scaled as the Euro soared on boosted German bond yields.
Traders are now awaiting the US central bank meeting next week. In this update, our major focus is going to be on FOMC and Fed rate decision, expectations, and its potential impact on the market. Moreover, the recent tweets from the US President Donald Trump are also pressuring the Federal Reserve to deliver a dovish monetary policy.

Weekly Outlook – Top Economic Events

CNY – Industrial Production y/y – Monday – 2:00 GMT

On Monday, the Asian session will begin with Chinese Industrial Production. The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities.
It’s a leading indicator of economic health – production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle.
Last month, Chinese industrial production fell surprisingly lower from 6.3% to 4.8%, escalating sentiments of recession in the global economy. For now, economists are expecting it to surge from 4.8% to 5.2%. This may trigger a risk-on sentiment in the market on Monday.

AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – Tuesday – 1:30 GMT

The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to deliver the minutes of its policy meeting. It’s a detailed record of the RBA Reserve Bank Board’s most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates.
We may not see any significant response on the release of RBA policy minutes as it’s already priced in.
fxleaders.com/September 15, 2019/Arslan Butt

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